Prevalence of subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis in adults in community settings: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis, which presents without recognisable symptoms, is frequently detected in community screening. However, the disease category is poorly clinically defined. We explored the prevalence of subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis according to different case definitions. METHODS: We did a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis of nationally representative surveys that were conducted in countries with high incidence of tuberculosis between 2007 and 2020, that reported the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis based on chest x-ray and symptom screening in participants aged 15 years and older. Screening and diagnostic criteria were standardised across the surveys, and tuberculosis was defined by positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis sputum culture. We estimated proportions of subclinical tuberculosis for three case definitions: no persistent cough (ie, duration ≥2 weeks), no cough at all, and no symptoms (ie, absence of cough, fever, chest pain, night sweats, and weight loss), both unadjusted and adjusted for false-negative chest x-rays and uninterpretable culture results. FINDINGS: We identified 34 surveys, of which 31 were eligible. Individual participant data were obtained and included for 12 surveys (620 682 participants) across eight countries in Africa and four in Asia. Data on 602 863 participants were analysed, of whom 1944 had tuberculosis. The unadjusted proportion of subclinical tuberculosis was 59·1% (n=1149/1944; 95% CI 55·8-62·3) for no persistent cough and 39·8% (773/1944; 36·6-43·0) for no cough of any duration. The adjusted proportions were 82·8% (95% CI 78·6-86·6) for no persistent cough and 62·5% (56·6-68·7) for no cough at all. In a subset of four surveys, the proportion of participants with tuberculosis but without any symptoms was 20·3% (n=111/547; 95% CI 15·5-25·1) before adjustment and 27·7% (95% CI 21·0-36·4) after adjustment. Tuberculosis without cough, irrespective of its duration, was more frequent among women (no persistent cough: adjusted odds ratio 0·79, 95% CI 0·63-0·97; no cough: adjusted odds ratio 0·76, 95% CI 0·62-0·93). Among participants with tuberculosis, 29·1% (95% CI 25·2-33·3) of those without persistent cough and 23·1% (18·8-27·4) of those without any cough had positive smear examinations. INTERPRETATION: The majority of people in the community who have pulmonary tuberculosis do not report cough, a quarter report no tuberculosis-suggestive symptoms at all, and a quarter of those not reporting any cough have positive sputum smears, suggesting infectiousness. In high-incidence settings, subclinical tuberculosis could contribute considerably to the tuberculosis burden and to Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. FUNDING: Mr Willem Bakhuys Roozeboom Foundation.

Perspectives on development and advancement of new tuberculosis vaccines.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death worldwide and is estimated to have caused 1.3 million deaths worldwide in 2022. Approximately one quarter of the world's population are infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, of whom up to 10% will progress to developing active TB disease. Achieving the World Health Organization End TB Strategy targets of a 95% reduction in TB mortality and a 90% reduction in TB incidence worldwide by 2035 remains a daunting task. The continuing spread of multidrug-resistant TB adds another obstacle to achieving global TB control. Larger funding pledges coupled with technological advances have recently enabled the enhancement of TB vaccine development efforts. These are yielding a pipeline of over 17 products currently in different stages of clinical trials. Emerging promising phase I and II trial results and advancement to phase III trials have necessitated "vaccine preparedness" in parallel so that a smooth transition from any positive clinical trial result to phase IV evaluation and implementation into policy and practice can follow. Promotion of a human rights-based approach, which recognizes and upholds the fundamental rights of all affected by the disease, is essential to ensure universal access to quality TB vaccines, regardless of their background or personal circumstances.

Test negative case-control study of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness for symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection among healthcare workers: Zambia, 2021-2022.

OBJECTIVES: The study aim was to evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 among healthcare workers (HCWs) in Zambia. We sought to answer the question, 'What is the vaccine effectiveness of a complete schedule of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 among HCWs in Zambia?' DESIGN/SETTING: We conducted a test-negative case-control study among HCWs across different levels of health facilities in Zambia offering point of care testing for COVID-19 from May 2021 to March 2022. PARTICIPANTS: 1767 participants entered the study and completed it. Cases were HCWs with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and controls were HCWs who tested SARS-CoV-2 negative. Consented HCWs with documented history of vaccination for COVID-19 (vaccinated HCWs only) were included in the study. HCWs with unknown test results and unknown vaccination status, were excluded. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was VE among symptomatic HCWs. Secondary outcomes were VE by: SARS-CoV-2 variant strains based on the predominant variant circulating in Zambia (Delta during May 2021 to November 2021 and Omicron during December 2021 to March 2022), duration since vaccination and vaccine product. RESULTS: We recruited 1145 symptomatic HCWs. The median age was 30 years (IQR: 26-38) and 789 (68.9%) were women. Two hundred and eighty-two (24.6%) were fully vaccinated. The median time to full vaccination was 102 days (IQR: 56-144). VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 72.7% (95% CI: 61.9% to 80.7%) for fully vaccinated participants. VE was 79.4% (95% CI: 58.2% to 90.7%) during the Delta period and 37.5% (95% CI: -7.0% to 63.3%) during the Omicron period. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccines were effective in reducing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 among Zambian HCWs when the Delta variant was circulating but not when Omicron was circulating. This could be related to immune evasive characteristics and/or waning immunity. These findings support accelerating COVID-19 booster dosing with bivalent vaccines as part of the vaccination programme to reduce COVID-19 in Zambia.

Changes in mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia: Implications for the effectiveness of NPIs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted many facets of human behavior, including human mobility partially driven by the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay at home orders, travel restrictions, and workplace and school closures. Given the importance of human mobility in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, there have been an increase in analyses of mobility data to understand the COVID-19 pandemic to date. However, despite an abundance of these analyses, few have focused on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here, we use mobile phone calling data to provide a spatially refined analysis of sub-national human mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020-July 2021 in Zambia using transmission and mobility models. Overall, among highly trafficked intra-province routes, mobility decreased up to 52% during the time of the strictest NPIs (March-May 2020) compared to baseline. However, despite dips in mobility during the first wave of COVID-19 cases, mobility returned to baseline levels and did not drop again suggesting COVID-19 cases did not influence mobility in subsequent waves.

Euvichol-plus vaccine campaign coverage during the 2017/2018 cholera outbreak in Lusaka district, Zambia: a cross-sectional descriptive study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the coverage for the oral cholera vaccine (OCV) campaign conducted during the 2017/2018 cholera outbreak in Lusaka, Zambia. STUDY DESIGN: A descriptive cross-sectional study employing survey method conducted among 1691 respondents from 369 households following the second round of the 2018 OCV campaign. STUDY SETTING: Four primary healthcare facilities and their catchment areas in Lusaka city (Kanyama, Chawama, Chipata and Matero subdistricts). PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1691 respondents 12 months and older sampled from 369 households where the campaign was conducted. A satellite map-based sampling technique was used to randomly select households. DATA MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS: A pretested electronic questionnaire uploaded on an electronic tablet (ODK V.1.12.2) was used for data collection. Descriptive statistics were computed to summarise respondents' characteristics and OCV coverage per dose. Bivariate analysis (χ2 test) was conducted to stratify OCV coverage according to age and sex for each round (p<0.05). RESULTS: The overall coverage for the first, second and two doses were 81.3% (95% CI 79.24% to 83.36%), 72.1% (95% CI 69.58% to 74.62%) and 66% (95% CI 63.22% to 68.78%), respectively. The drop-out rate was 18.8% (95% CI 14.51% to 23.09%). Of the 81.3% who received the first dose, 58.8% were female. Among those who received the second dose, the majority (61.0%) were females aged between 5 and 14 years (42.6%) and 15 and 35 years (27.7%). Only 15.5% of the participants aged between 36 and 65 and 2.5% among those aged above 65 years received the second dose. CONCLUSION: These findings confirm the 2018 OCV campaign coverage and highlight the need for follow-up surveys to validate administrative coverage estimates using population-based methods. Reliance on health facility data alone may mask low coverage and prevent measures to improve programming. Future public health interventions should consider sociodemographic factors in order to achieve optimal vaccine coverage.

Spatial factors for COVID-19 associated community deaths in an urban area of Lusaka, Zambia: an observational study.

We retrospectively analyzed spatial factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated community deaths i.e., brought-in-dead (BID) in Lusaka, Zambia, between March and July 2020. A total of 127 cases of BID with geocoordinate data of their houses were identified during the study period. Median interquartile range (IQR) of the age of these cases was 49 (34-70) years old, and 47 cases (37.0%) were elderly individuals over 60 years old. Seventy-five cases (75%) of BID were identified in July 2020, when the total number of cases and deaths was largest in Zambia. Among those whose information regarding their underlying medical condition was available, hypertension was most common (22.9%, 8/35). Among Lusaka's 94 townships, the numbers (median, IQR) of cases were significantly larger in those characterized as unplanned residential areas compared to planned areas (1.0, 0.0-4.0 vs 0.0, 0.0-1.0; p=0.030). The proportion of individuals who require more than 30 minutes to obtain water was correlated with a larger number of BID cases per 105 population in each township (rho=0.28, p=0.006). The number of BID cases was larger in unplanned residential areas, which highlighted the importance of targeted public health interventions specifically to those areas to reduce the total number of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka. Brought-in-dead surveillance might be beneficial in monitoring epidemic conditions of COVID-19 in such high-risk areas. Furthermore, inadequate access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) might be associated with such distinct geographical distributions of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka, Zambia.

Genomic Analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Strains Resistant to Second-Line Anti-Tuberculosis Drugs in Lusaka, Zambia.

The emergence of pre-extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis (pre-XDR-TB) is a threat to TB control programs in developing countries such as Zambia. Studies in Zambia have applied molecular techniques to understand drug-resistance-associated mutations, circulating lineages and transmission patterns of multi-drug-resistant (MDR) Mycobacterium tuberculosis. However, none has reported genotypes and mutations associated with pre-XDR TB. This study characterized 63 drug-resistant M. tuberculosis strains from the University Teaching Hospital between 2018 and 2019 using targeted gene sequencing and conveniently selected 50 strains for whole genome sequencing. Sixty strains had resistance mutations associated to MDR, one polyresistant, and two rifampicin resistant. Among MDR strains, seven percent (4/60) had mutations associated with pre-XDR-TB. While four, one and nine strains had mutations associated with ethionamide, para-amino-salicylic acid and streptomycin resistances, respectively. All 50 strains belonged to lineage 4 with the predominant sub-lineage 4.3.4.2.1 (38%). Three of four pre-XDR strains belonged to sub-lineage 4.3.4.2.1. Sub-lineage 4.3.4.2.1 strains were less clustered when compared to sub-lineages L4.9.1 and L4.3.4.1 based on single nucleotide polymorphism differences. The finding that resistances to second-line drugs have emerged among MDR-TB is a threat to TB control. Hence, the study recommends a strengthened routine drug susceptibility testing for second-line TB drugs to stop the progression of pre-XDR to XDR-TB and improve patient treatment outcomes.

Global and regional governance of One Health and implications for global health security.

The apparent failure of global health security to prevent or prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for closer cooperation between human, animal (domestic and wildlife), and environmental health sectors. However, the many institutions, processes, regulatory frameworks, and legal instruments with direct and indirect roles in the global governance of One Health have led to a fragmented, global, multilateral health security architecture. We explore four challenges: first, the sectoral, professional, and institutional silos and tensions existing between human, animal, and environmental health; second, the challenge that the international legal system, state sovereignty, and existing legal instruments pose for the governance of One Health; third, the power dynamics and asymmetry in power between countries represented in multilateral institutions and their impact on priority setting; and finally, the current financing mechanisms that predominantly focus on response to crises, and the chronic underinvestment for epidemic and emergency prevention, mitigation, and preparedness activities. We illustrate the global and regional dimensions to these four challenges and how they relate to national needs and priorities through three case studies on compulsory licensing, the governance of water resources in the Lake Chad Basin, and the desert locust infestation in east Africa. Finally, we propose 12 recommendations for the global community to address these challenges. Despite its broad and holistic agenda, One Health continues to be dominated by human and domestic animal health experts. Substantial efforts should be made to address the social-ecological drivers of health emergencies including outbreaks of emerging, re-emerging, and endemic infectious diseases. These drivers include climate change, biodiversity loss, and land-use change, and therefore require effective and enforceable legislation, investment, capacity building, and integration of other sectors and professionals beyond health.

Nonpharmaceutical interventions reduce the incidence and mortality of COVID-19: A study based on the survey from the International COVID-19 Research Network (ICRN).

The recently emerged novel coronavirus, "severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)," caused a highly contagious disease called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). It has severely damaged the world's most developed countries and has turned into a major threat for low- and middle-income countries. Since its emergence in late 2019, medical interventions have been substantial, and most countries relied on public health measures collectively known as nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We aimed to centralize the accumulative knowledge of NPIs against COVID-19 for each country under one worldwide consortium. International COVID-19 Research Network collaborators developed a cross-sectional online survey to assess the implications of NPIs and sanitary supply on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19. The survey was conducted between January 1 and February 1, 2021, and participants from 92 countries/territories completed it. The association between NPIs, sanitation supplies, and incidence and mortality were examined by multivariate regression, with the log-transformed value of population as an offset value. The majority of countries/territories applied several preventive strategies, including social distancing (100.0%), quarantine (100.0%), isolation (98.9%), and school closure (97.8%). Individual-level preventive measures such as personal hygiene (100.0%) and wearing facial masks (94.6% at hospitals; 93.5% at mass transportation; 91.3% in mass gathering facilities) were also frequently applied. Quarantine at a designated place was negatively associated with incidence and mortality compared to home quarantine. Isolation at a designated place was also associated with reduced mortality compared to home isolation. Recommendations to use sanitizer for personal hygiene reduced incidence compared to the recommendation to use soap. Deprivation of masks was associated with increased incidence. Higher incidence and mortality were found in countries/territories with higher economic levels. Mask deprivation was pervasive regardless of economic level. NPIs against COVID-19 such as using sanitizer, quarantine, and isolation can decrease the incidence and mortality of COVID-19.

Spatial factors for COVID-19 associated community deaths in an urban area of Lusaka, Zambia: an observational study

We retrospectively analyzed spatial factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated community deaths i.e., brought-in-dead (BID) in Lusaka, Zambia, between March and July 2020. A total of 127 cases of BID with geocoordinate data of their houses were identified during the study period. Median interquartile range (IQR) of the age of these cases was 49 (34-70) years old, and 47 cases (37.0%) were elderly individuals over 60 years old. Seventy-five cases (75%) of BID were identified in July 2020, when the total number of cases and deaths was largest in Zambia. Among those whose information regarding their underlying medical condition was available, hypertension was most common (22.9%, 8/35). Among Lusaka's 94 townships, the numbers (median, IQR) of cases were significantly larger in those characterized as unplanned residential areas compared to planned areas (1.0, 0.0-4.0 vs 0.0, 0.0-1.0; p=0.030). The proportion of individuals who require more than 30 minutes to obtain water was correlated with a larger number of BID cases per 105 population in each township (rho=0.28, p=0.006). The number of BID cases was larger in unplanned residential areas, which highlighted the importance of targeted public health interventions specifically to those areas to reduce the total number of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka. Brought-in-dead surveillance might be beneficial in monitoring epidemic conditions of COVID-19 in such high-risk areas. Furthermore, inadequate access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) might be associated with such distinct geographical distributions of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka, Zambia.

Luna Virus and Helminths in Wild Mastomys natalensis in Two Contrasting Habitats in Zambia: Risk Factors and Evidence of Virus Dissemination in Semen.

Transmission dynamics and the maintenance of mammarenaviruses in nature are poorly understood. Using metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) and RT-PCR, we investigated the presence of mammarenaviruses and co-infecting helminths in various tissues of 182 Mastomys natalensis rodents and 68 other small mammals in riverine and non-riverine habitats in Zambia. The Luna virus (LUAV) genome was the only mammarenavirus detected (7.7%; 14/182) from M. natalensis. Only one rodent from the non-riverine habitat was positive, while all six foetuses from one pregnant rodent carried LUAV. LUAV-specific mNGS reads were 24-fold higher in semen than in other tissues from males. Phylogenetically, the viruses were closely related to each other within the LUAV clade. Helminth infections were found in 11.5% (21/182) of M. natalensis. LUAV-helminth co-infections were observed in 50% (7/14) of virus-positive rodents. Juvenility (OR = 9.4; p = 0.018; 95% CI: 1.47-59.84), nematodes (OR = 15.5; p = 0.001; 95% CI: 3.11-76.70), cestodes (OR = 10.8; p = 0.025; 95% CI: 1.35-86.77), and being male (OR = 4.6; p = 0.036; 95% CI: 1.10-18.90) were associated with increased odds of LUAV RNA detection. The role of possible sexual and/or congenital transmission in the epidemiology of LUAV infections in rodents requires further study, along with the implications of possible helminth co-infection.

Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the Southern Province of Zambia: Detection and Characterization of Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron Variants of Concern.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) have significantly impacted the global epidemiology of the pandemic. From December 2020 to April 2022, we conducted genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the Southern Province of Zambia, a region that shares international borders with Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe and is a major tourist destination. Genetic analysis of 40 SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes revealed the circulation of Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Delta (AY.116), and multiple Omicron subvariants with the BA.1 subvariant being predominant. Whereas Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants were associated with the second, third, and fourth pandemic waves, respectively, the Alpha variant was not associated with any wave in the country. Phylogenetic analysis showed evidence of local transmission and possible multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in Zambia from different European and African countries. Across the 40 genomes analysed, a total of 292 mutations were observed, including 182 missense mutations, 66 synonymous mutations, 23 deletions, 9 insertions, 1 stop codon, and 11 mutations in the non-coding region. This study stresses the need for the continued monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Zambia, particularly in strategically positioned regions such as the Southern Province which could be at increased risk of introduction of novel VOCs.

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness during a Prison Outbreak when Omicron was the Dominant Circulating Variant-Zambia, December 2021.

During a COVID-19 outbreak in a prison in Zambia from December 14 to 19, 2021, a case-control study was done to measure vaccine effectiveness (VE) against infection and symptomatic infection, when the Omicron variant was the dominant circulating variant. Among 382 participants, 74.1% were fully vaccinated, and the median time since full vaccination was 54 days. There were no hospitalizations or deaths. COVID-19 VE against any SARS-CoV-2 infection was 64.8%, and VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 72.9%. COVID-19 vaccination helped protect incarcerated persons against SARS-CoV-2 infection during an outbreak while Omicron was the dominant variant in Zambia. These findings provide important local evidence that might be used to increase COVID-19 vaccination in Zambia and other countries in Africa.

A 10-year Review of TB Notifications and Mortality Trends Using a Joint Point Analysis in Zambia - a High TB burden country.

BACKGROUND: Zambia is one of the TB high-burden countries. It is important to track the progress being made towards enhancing case finding and reducing mortality. We reviewed routine TB notifications and mortality trends, over a decade from all facilities in Zambia. METHODS: A 10-year retrospective study of TB notifications and mortality trends was performed using a Joint Point Analysis version 4.9.0.0, NCI. We extracted the annual national TB program data for the period under review. RESULTS: There was a decline in annual point average for notification between 2010 and 2020 in both males and females, but the females notification rates had a higher rate of decline (AAPC = -6.7, 95%CI:-8.3 to -5.0), p<0.001) compared to the decline in males notification rate (AAPC = -4.1, 95%CI:-4.1 to -5.1, P<0.001). We found a significant growth rate in the proportion of TB patients that were bacteriologically confirmed (AAPC = 6.1, 95% CI: 3.6 to 8.7, p< 0.001), while the proportion of clinically diagnosed patients declined (AAPC= -0.1, 95%CI: -2.3 to 2.1, p<0.001). Notification of drug-resistant TB increased exponentially (AAPC=27.3, 95% CI: 13 to 41), p< 0.001) while mortality rate declined from 21.3 in 2011 to 12.7 in 2019 per 100,000 population (AAP=-5.6, 95%CI: -9.6 to -1.5, p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: This study has illustrated the importance of reviewing and analyzing routinely collected TB data by national programs. The study revealed areas of improvement in terms of TB control and underscores the need for increased and sustained investment in case detection and diagnostics.

Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Zambia.

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a diagnostic validation study of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic kits. METHODS: We compared SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic test results from 3 RT-PCR assays used by the Zambian government between November 2020 and February 2021 (Panther Fusion assay, Da An Gene's 2019-nCoV RNA kit and Maccura's PCR Kit) with the Altona RealStar RT-PCR kit which served as the gold standard. We also evaluated results from rapid antigen testing and whether comorbidities were linked with increased odds of infection. RESULTS: We recruited 244 participants, 61% (149/244) were positive by at least 1 PCR assay. Da An Gene, Maccura, and Panther Fusion assays had sensitivities of 0.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0%-41%), 27.1% (95% CI 15%-42%), and 76% (95% CI 65%-85%), respectively, but specificity was low (<85% for all 3 assays). HIV and TB were not associated with SARS-CoV-2, whereas female sex (OR 0.5 [0.3-0.9], p = 0.026) and chronic pulmonary disease (0.1 [0.0-0.8], p = 0.031) were associated with lower odds of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of 44 samples, 84% sequenced were Beta variant. CONCLUSIONS: The RT-PCR assays evaluated did not meet WHO recommended minimum sensitivity of 80%. Local diagnostic validation studies should be embedded within preparedness plans for future outbreaks to improve the public health response.

Tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and Malaria Health Services in sub-Saharan Africa - A Situation Analysis of the Disruptions and Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The unprecedented and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has exposed weaknesses in African countries' health systems. The impact of shifted focus on COVID-19 for the past 2 years on routine health services, especially those for the epidemics of Tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and Malaria, have been dramatic in both quantity and quality. METHODS: In this article, we reflect on the COVID-19 related disruptions on the Tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS and Malaria routine health services across Africa. RESULTS: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in disruptions of routine health services and diversion of already limited available resources in sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, disease programs like TB, malaria and HIV have recorded gaps in prevention and treatment with the prospects of reversing gains made towards meeting global targets. The extent of the disruption is yet to be fully quantified at country level as most data available is from modelling estimates before and during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate country-level data is required to convince donors and governments to invest more into revamping these health services and help prepare for managing future pandemics without disruption of routine services. Increasing government expenditure on health is a critical part of Africa's economic policy. Strengthening health systems at various levels to overcome the negative impacts of COVID-19, and preparing for future epidemics will require strong visionary political leadership. Innovations in service delivery and technological adaptations are required as countries aim to limit disruptions to routine services.

Incidental Tuberculosis in sudden, unexpected, and violent deaths in the community Lusaka, Zambia - A descriptive forensic post-mortem examination study.

OBJECTIVES: Tuberculosis remains a global emergency. In Zambia only 55% of tuberculosis cases are diagnosed. We performed a study to determine incidental cases of tuberculosis seen at forensic autopsy of individuals who died suddenly and unexpectedly in the community in Lusaka, Zambia. METHODS: Whole-body autopsies were performed according to Standard Operating Procedures. Representative samples obtained from relevant organs were subjected to pathological examination. Information on circumstances surrounding the death was obtained. Data on patient demographics, gross and microscopic pathological findings, and cause(s) of death were analysed. RESULTS: Incidental tuberculosis was found in 52 cases (45 male, 7 female, age range 14-66) out of 4286 whole-body autopsies. 41/52 (80%) were aged 21-50 years. One was a 14-year old boy who died during a football match. 39/52 (75%) deaths were attributable specifically to tuberculosis only. Other deaths were due to acute alcohol intoxication(4), violence(7), ruptured ectopic pregnancy(1), bacterial meningitis (1). All the cases were from poor socio-economic backgrounds and lived in high-density areas of Lusaka. CONCLUSIONS: Incidental cases of active tuberculosis undiagnosed antemortem seen at forensic autopsy reflects major gaps in the national TB control programs. More investments into proactive screening, testing, treatment activities, and accurate data collection are required.

How "Subclinical" is Subclinical Tuberculosis? An Analysis of National Prevalence Survey Data from Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary tuberculosis infection can manifest in different states, including subclinical tuberculosis. It is commonly defined as confirmed tuberculosis without the classic symptoms (commonly, persistent cough for ≥2 weeks). This narrow definition likely poses limitations for surveillance and control measures. The aims of the current study were to characterize the clinical presentation of tuberculosis; estimate the prevalence of subclinical tuberculosis among individuals with bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis, using various definitions; and investigate risk factors for subclinical as opposed to clinical tuberculosis in a population-based survey. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a nationally representative tuberculosis prevalence survey from Zambia in 2013-2014, in which participants were screened for tuberculosis based on chest radiographic findings and symptoms. Tuberculosis was defined as culture-positive or GeneXpert MTB/RIF test-positive sputum. Risk factors for subclinical tuberculosis were assessed by means of multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 257 participants with confirmed tuberculosis, 104 (40.5%) were without cough persisting ≥2 weeks. Only 23 (22.1%) of these did not present with any other common symptoms. Those without cough persisting ≥2 weeks frequently reported other symptoms, particularly chest pain (46.2%) and weight loss (38.5%); 36 (34.6%) reported experiencing other symptoms persisting ≥4 weeks. Female subjects were more likely to report no cough persisting ≥2 weeks, as were relatively wealthier individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The commonly used definition of subclinical tuberculosis includes a large proportion of individuals who have other tuberculosis-suggestive symptoms. Requiring cough ≥2 weeks for tuberculosis diagnosis likely misses many active tuberculosis infections and allows a large reservoir of likely transmissible tuberculosis to remain undetected.